Thursday, December 15, 2011

NBA trades and agglomeration economics

The NBA lockdown finally was over, player trades sagas are coming in place, with some having seemingly season defying effects. looking at past seasons, From the Big 3 at Boston (KG, Ray, Pierce) to the Big Flukes in Miami (LeBron, Wayne, Bosh), even Shaq moving to Lakers, and subsequently the Heat, had great influences to the dynamics of the league. Early this pre-season, many are already shocked by Stern's decision to stop Chris Paul's trade to the Lakers. Indeed, restricting free labour movement within the 21st century capitalist state of the world seems just so obscene.

In thinking what motivates a player to move to another franchise, salary naturally makes the list. The "love for the franchise/city" and the franchises' "championship-winning material" definitely comes into play as well. Other influences include "their fit to franchise" and "wanting longer play time" perks. Other issues include the player's age, health, home town, and even utility functions, subjected to certain restrictive assumptions.

Let me take the pages off another Paul, Krugman that is. In his core-periphery model (first published in 1979), Krugman postulates that international trade (and in a somewhat linked fashion, industrial clustering) can occur from a combination of increasing returns to scale and 'love-for'variety' utilities. Here, I evoke a simple concept. One superstar's move to a franchise will up the franchise's "champion-material' ranking, thereby making that franchise more appealing to other like-minded championship hungry superstars. Jordan needed Pippen, Rodman, Harper and Longley. Kobe had Shaq and Gaso, Shaq had Waye, and Boston have a trio. Production towards the NBA championship (a huge winner-takes all production scenario) has a somewhat increasing returns to scale nature too!

Back to the present day NBA. Free market is sustainable because failures fails and winners remain. The Seattle Supersonics "died" (they became very OK-C), Hornets bankrupted (now owned by the NBA, which I think is why Stern had the power to do what he did), while Sacramento almost imploded at the end of last season. The idea of prevent talent clustering to make the league more competitive sounds reasonable, but it also seems to go against the ideas of agglomeration economics. I hope Stern ain't going to throw more intervention shocks this season again. Free market!!!!

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